Forecasts of the Russian economy

Акции Облигации Валюты Товары ПИФы Биржи Макроэкономика Общение

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Annual forecast :: Consensus

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Classification

Indicator

Current
value

Unit

Consensus

Date

2012

2013

2014

GDP

Fixed investments

15.60

5.93

7.68

6.40

14.02.12

GDP

4.30

3.58

3.97

3.83

17.02.12

Foreign trade

Balance of trade*

20.40

$bn

11.53

8.48

14.02.12

Exports*

51.00

$bn

41.73

43.38

53.51

14.02.12

Imports*

30.50

$bn

29.38

33.43

35.54

14.02.12

Inflation

Consumer price index

4.20

6.60

6.45

5.85

17.02.12

Producer prices

8.40

8.24

7.74

9.10

14.02.12

Consumer market

Real disposable incomes

2.30

3.58

4.50

5.20

10.02.12

Retail sales

6.80

4.32

4.80

6.00

10.02.12

Industry

Industrial production

3.80

3.83

4.31

3.10

14.02.12

Labour market

Unemployment

6.60

6.61

6.39

14.02.12

* Forecasts were converted to monthly format to make them comparable with Rosstat's data.

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Consensus

GDP

	Current	4.30
	Consensus
	2012	3.58
	2013	3.97
	2014	3.83

History

Company

2012

2013

2014

Date

Alfa Bank

2.60

10.05.11

BNP Paribas

4.70

4.80

14.12.11

Barclays Capital

4.30

4.50

07.12.11

CIBC

3.50

3.80

22.12.11

Capital Economics

3.00

2.50

01.02.12

Citigroup Investment Research

3.50

4.00

19.01.12

Commerzbank

3.50

4.30

19.01.12

Credit Agricole S.A.

1.70

2.50

16.12.11

Credit Suisse Group

3.80

4.90

16.02.12

Danske Bank

4.50

4.10

13.10.11

Deutsche Bank

4.60

4.90

17.01.12

EBRD

4.20

25.01.12

Economist Intelligence Unit

3.20

4.00

4.30

23.01.12

European Commission

3.80

4.00

10.11.11

Gazprombank

3.50

07.02.12

Goldman Sachs

3.90

4.50

01.12.11

HSBC

3.00

21.12.11

IMF

3.30

3.50

25.01.12

ING BANK

3.30

4.10

21.10.11

J.P. Morgan

5.00

4.00

24.01.12

Lloyds TSB

3.50

4.30

26.01.12

Merrill Lynch

3.60

3.70

17.02.12

Nordea

4.30

5.00

26.01.12

OECD

4.10

29.11.11

Otkritie

3.90

4.20

20.12.11

Rabobank

4.00

17.01.12

Raiffeisen RESEARCH

3.00

4.00

26.01.12

Renaissance Capital

2.30

4.50

14.02.12

TD Bank Financial Group

3.80

4.20

15.12.11

The World Bank

3.50

3.90

18.01.12

Troika Dialog

4.00

09.12.11

UBS

3.00

3.80

26.01.12

URALSIB

2.80

3.00

10.02.12

VTB Capital

3.50

4.00

14.12.11

Wells Fargo Securities

3.20

3.00

12.10.11

Consensus

3.58

3.97

3.83

Export to Excel

Date	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
17.02.12				3.97
16.02.12			3.59	3.98
14.02.12				3.95
10.02.12					3.83
08.02.12			3.59
07.02.12			3.59
01.02.12			3.59	3.93
30.01.12		4.11	3.58
26.01.12			3.59	3.96
25.01.12			3.63	3.98
24.01.12					4.10
23.01.12					4.15
20.01.12		4.13
19.01.12		4.14	3.64	3.99	4.00
18.01.12		4.14	3.61	3.98
17.01.12		4.14	3.62	3.98
16.01.12			3.64	3.95
22.12.11				3.96
21.12.11		4.13	3.67	3.97
20.12.11				3.95
19.12.11		4.12
16.12.11		4.13	3.68	3.94
15.12.11		4.15	3.74	4.00
14.12.11		4.15	3.75	4.00
13.12.11			3.78
09.12.11			3.78
07.12.11		4.15	3.77	3.99
02.12.11			3.78
01.12.11			3.79	3.98
30.11.11				3.95
29.11.11		4.15	3.78	3.94
28.11.11		4.17	3.77	3.93
25.11.11			3.78
23.11.11		4.18
21.11.11		4.17
17.11.11		4.18	3.82	3.96
15.11.11		4.15
10.11.11		4.15	3.80	3.94
09.11.11		4.16	3.80	3.94
07.11.11			3.85
21.10.11		4.15	3.86	3.94
20.10.11		4.18	3.90	3.99
18.10.11		4.20	3.92
17.10.11		4.20	3.92
13.10.11		4.20	3.97	3.99
12.10.11		4.21	3.96	3.96
07.10.11		4.21	3.97	3.97
04.10.11		4.24	4.02	4.01
03.10.11		4.25
30.09.11		4.27	4.02
29.09.11			4.06	4.03
26.09.11		4.30	4.10	4.02
21.09.11		4.31	4.09
20.09.11		4.31	4.10	4.05
16.09.11		4.35	4.15	4.07
15.09.11		4.39	4.21
13.09.11		4.40	4.22	4.09
07.09.11		4.43	4.22	4.10
06.09.11		4.46	4.28
02.09.11		4.50	4.32
31.08.11		4.53	4.35	4.19
26.08.11		4.51	4.31
24.08.11		4.53	4.32
23.08.11		4.54	4.34
18.08.11		4.58	4.34
15.08.11		4.56	4.33	4.05
12.08.11		4.61
29.07.11		4.63
20.07.11				4.03
19.07.11	4.42	4.65	4.33	4.06
14.07.11	4.47
13.07.11		4.65	4.34
07.07.11		4.64
05.07.11			4.33	4.10
01.07.11		4.67	4.35
30.06.11	4.53
28.06.11	4.60		4.39	4.23
23.06.11		4.67	4.42	4.12
22.06.11		4.69	4.44
21.06.11		4.69	4.44
20.06.11		4.69	4.44
17.06.11		4.70	4.44
16.06.11		4.70	4.44	4.12
15.06.11		4.67	4.43	4.07
14.06.11		4.65	4.43
10.06.11				3.90
09.06.11	4.70	4.66	4.43
31.05.11	4.84	4.66	4.47
30.05.11		4.68
25.05.11	5.05	4.71
17.05.11	4.00	4.69	4.42
10.05.11	4.00	4.65	4.37
06.05.11	4.00	4.66	4.61
03.05.11		4.63	4.63
12.04.11		4.56	4.51
11.04.11		4.57	4.66
05.04.11		4.64	4.68
01.04.11		4.42	4.23
31.03.11		4.55	4.20
30.03.11		4.23	4.30
25.03.11		4.15	4.60
12.03.11				3.70
25.02.11		4.00

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Comments

Comments
Recent Changes

15:20 Citi: We expect Russian GDP growth to be 3.5% YoY in 2012

13:41 Troika Dialog: Russia’s growth does not look that bad fundamentally

10:04 VTB Capital: In 2Q12, we see Russian GDP growth moderating

09:46 Barclays Capital: We expect growth in Russia to remain solid

16:48 Capital Economics: Growth in Russia this year may turn out to be closer to 4%

11:36 VTB Capital: We expect capital outflows from Russia at USD 40bn this year

13:43 VTB Capital: We expect the current account surplus in Russia to shrink

13:22 Troika Dialog: We expect the Russian Central Bank to reduce base rates in 2H12

12:20 Nordea: We see the CBR hiking rates in the second half of the year

12:14 Danske Bank: For this year, we expect a maximum 0.5pp decrease in the CBR's refinance rate

11:00 VTB Capital: The CBR won't change the monetary policy stance until 2H12

10:20 Barclays Capital: We maintain our end-year CPI forecast for Russia at 5.8% y/y

13:24 Citi: We expect consumption in Russia to slow down to 5-6% by the year-end

14:16 Goldman Sachs: Inflation in Russia will rise to 3.9%yoy in April

11:32 VTB Capital: Improvement in the Russian manufacturing sector continues

Publish date	Forecast period	Indicator	Company

16.05.12 11:05	2013	Balance of trade*	Renaissance Capital
16.05.12 11:05	2012	Balance of trade*	Renaissance Capital
16.05.12 11:05	2012	Consumer price index	Troika Dialog
16.05.12 11:05	2012	GDP	Troika Dialog
10.05.12 12:05	2012	GDP	Wells Fargo Securities
03.05.12 11:05	2012	Unemployment	Rabobank
02.05.12 15:05	2014	GDP	Capital Economics
24.04.12 17:04	2012	Consumer price index	Alfa Bank
24.04.12 17:04	2012	Real disposable incomes	Alfa Bank
24.04.12 17:04	2012	Industrial production	Alfa Bank
24.04.12 17:04	2012	Fixed investments	Alfa Bank
24.04.12 17:04	2012	Retail sales	Alfa Bank
24.04.12 13:04	2013	Balance of trade*	UBS
24.04.12 13:04	2012	Balance of trade*	UBS
24.04.12 13:04	2013	Consumer price index	UBS

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Russian Economy Forecasts

Indicator

Forecast

2011

2012

GDP

3.69

3.90

Consumer price index

6.13

6.40

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